China’s First Encounter with Trump: Trade War, Taiwan Tensions, and a Broken ‘Bromance’
China Braces for Uncertainty as Trump Prepares for Second Term, Renewing Tensions over Trade, Technology, and Taiwan
Perhaps the biggest consequence for China — if Mr. Trump stays true to his campaign promises — is his threat to slap blanket 60% tariffs on all Chinese exports to the U.S.
Tariffs Could Undermine China’s Fragile Economy, Slashing Growth Amid High Youth Unemployment and Property Slump
During Trump’s term, the U.S. imposed tariffs on $360 billion of Chinese goods, leading to a 2020 trade deal. Biden kept most tariffs and added new duties on steel, solar, and EVs.
Factoring into the trade talks could be Mr. Trump’s appeals to Chinese President Xi Jinping to help negotiate a resolution to the Ukraine war, which Mr. Trump has boasted he will be able to do quickly, without saying how.
Mr. Trump previously sought Mr. Xi’s help in dealing with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un.
That dynamic could repeat itself, with Mr. Trump weighing trade grievances against seeking China’s support in global crises, according to Wang Huiyao, founder of the Beijing-based think tank Center for China and Globalization.
“China is the largest trading partner of both Russia and Ukraine,” Mr. Wang wrote in a recent commentary. “These close economic ties give China a unique opportunity to play a greater role in peace-making efforts.”
Case of Taiwan
There is one scenario in which Mr. Trump has threatened to impose even higher tariffs — 150% to 200% — on Chinese goods: if China invades Taiwan, a self-ruled democracy that Beijing claims as its own.
The U.S. does not recognise Taiwan as a country, but is its strongest backer and biggest arms provider.
Mr. Trump angered Beijing in December 2016 by taking a congratulatory call from Taiwan’s then-President Tsai Ing-wen in a breach of diplomatic protocol.
No U.S. President had spoken directly to a Taiwanese leader since Washington and Beijing established ties in 1979.
As for China’s repeated threats to annex Taiwan, Mr. Trump told The Wall Street Journal last month that he would not have to use military force to prevent a blockade of Taiwan because Mr. Xi “respects me and he knows I’m (expletive) crazy.”
On the campaign trail, after the Trump victory in U.S. elections, Mr. Trump sometimes talked up his personal connection with Mr. Xi, which started exuberantly during his first term but soured over disputes about trade and the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic.
But Mr. Trump has also said that Taiwan should pay the U.S. for defending it against China, likening the relationship to insurance.
Taiwan spends about 2.5% of its GDP on defence, and purchased hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of U.S. weapons this year.
In a congratulatory message to Mr. Trump after his victory, Mr. Xi called for the U.S. and China to manage their differences and get along in a new era, according to Chinese state media.
History has shown that both sides gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation, Mr. Xi said.
